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If the Israeli assault on Iran a few days ago had been a “surprise” even for the US, the latest strike by America on Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, which have switched on the trigger towards escalation of the conflict in Middle-East Asia, was even more surprising! It may be recalled that during the campaign for the Presidency, Trump had criticised past US administrations for engaging in “stupid endless wars” in the Middle East, and had vowed to keep America out of foreign conflicts. It also speaks volumes for his quixotic nature that, only a short while back, Trump had said he would give Iran two weeks to enter into negotiations before taking a decision on joining hands with Israel.
Now it appears that the timeline was merely a bluff to lull Iran and enhance the surprise element of the American assault! While Iran has threatened reprisal, Israel has welcomed Trump’s move, asserting that “History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world’s most dangerous regime the world’s most dangerous weapons.” Considering that Israel is believed to have itself engaged in nuclear warhead proliferation, to denounce Tehran for its nuclear ambitions, even if these charges were true, would be a case of the pot calling the kettle black! The hypocrisy of the Trump administration, earlier revealed in conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, has been exposed yet once again.
The UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, has rightly pointed out that the American strike was a dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge, and a threat to international peace and security. But the UN today being a toothless tiger, his warning that there was a growing risk this conflict could rapidly get out of control, with catastrophic consequences for civilians, the region, and the world, does not carry much weight.
His appeal to Member States to de-escalate and “avoid a spiral of chaos” too will hardly evoke much of a positive response. It is true that of late Israeli action has considerably weakened Iran, particularly the damage inflicted on the latter’s regional proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.
Yet, Iran remains a formidable player in the region, with other entities like the Houthis in Yemen still in a position to cut off US shipping lanes. The most vulnerable are the US bases in the region – it operates military sites across at least 19 regions in the Middle East, including in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Trump is hoping the US strikes will force Iran to make greater concessions at the negotiating table, but the latter has already ruled out talks under coercion. On the other hand, the American strikes have moved the Middle East towards escalation of the conflict, while Trump has lost ground with his support base for breaking his campaign pledge.