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The change of guard in Bangladesh with a regime not so benign towards India is understandably having its unsolicited resonances in the latter. The developments also stand to adversely affect Assam, which shares a 262-km border with Bangladesh.
Among other things, the issuance of Bangladesh visas to people from Assam has fallen drastically by as much as 60 percent, indicating a significant reduction in cross-border movement and bilateral exchanges. There have been notable drops in student visas, disrupting cross-border academic plans of aspirants amid growing uncertainty over bilateral relations. Indo-Bangladesh trade has also nosedived, with Bangladesh imposing curbs, forcing India to respond in a similar vein.
One, however, expects things to improve with India making clear its commitment to maintain strong ties with the new regime. The economic cost of a stalemate in bilateral relations will be staggering for both, with bilateral trade between the two standing at $14.01 billion during 2023-24. Of this, the share of India’s exports to Bangladesh was $12.05 billion, while it imported goods worth $1.97 billion from that country.
The economic imperatives as well as their long shared history and deep-rooted interdependence warrant resumption of the strained ties and weakened activities at the earliest. While political changes in Bangladesh have inevitably heightened India’s concerns and challenges, careful navigation by India on the turbulent waters can steer it ashore. Critical areas such as trade, security, connectivity, border management and regional stability also provide ample ground for boosting mutually benefiting collaborations. Restoring bilateral relationships will have a huge bearing on regional stability, which is so essential for both.
While India needs to engage with Bangladesh consistently over a host of critical issues, the possibility of a radical government assuming charge in Bangladesh has long-term disturbing implications for Assam. This is largely because of the fallouts of a prolonged cross-border illegal migration from Bangladesh to Assam, effecting disconcerting demographic changes.
This has also helped the cause of Bangladesh-based terror outfits that are desperately trying to gain ground in Assam. In the event of the new regime taking a lenient view of these aspects, Assam will have a tougher job of reining in Bangladesh-sponsored fundamentalist elements. As for illegal migration, which has remained a burning issue for Assam for decades, the Government of India needs to take it up with its Bangladesh counterpart to devise a mechanism under which the latter would take back the legally-detected illegal migrants to their country of origin. Unfortunately, successive governments in India have never really raised this issue before Bangladesh in the right earnest even as Assam continues to battle an existential crisis. Much was expected of the BJP government – now in its third term at the Centre – to bring out a lasting resolution of the vexed issue but its role has not really gone beyond using the situation to reap electoral dividends.