Northeast’s deepening rain deficit: A climate crisis Assam can’t ignore”
Despite an early monsoon onset, Assam is grappling with an alarming 34% rainfall deficit in June, setting the stage for yet another year of below-normal rains across the Northeast.;

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Despite the early onset of monsoon, Assam is staring at a deepening climate crisis. The State recorded a staggering 34 percent rainfall deficit in June-the very month that typically sets the tone for a productive agricultural season. And if July unfolds as predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Assam, along with Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh, could be heading toward yet another year of below-normal monsoon rains.
The statistics are alarming. Assam received only 272 mm of rainfall in June against the normal 415.2 mm. The western districts bore the brunt, with Bajali reporting a deficit of 77 percent, Darrang 76 per-cent, and South Salmara 72 percent. Even districts in the relatively rain-friendly eastern Assam weren't spared -Dibrugarh saw a 56 percent shortfall, and Golaghat was down by 37 percent.
This isn't a localised anomaly. Neighbouring Meghalaya recorded a 46 percent deficit and Arunachal Pradesh 40 percent. If forecasts hold, this will mark the fifth consecutive year of below-normal monsoon rainfall in the Assam-Meghalaya subdivision.
While much of India anticipates normal to above-normal rains this year, the Northeast continues to remain in the rain shadow.
The implications are sobering. Rainfall is not just a seasonal expectation - it's the lifeblood of agriculture in Assam, which supports a majority of the rural population. Deficient rainfall means reduced soil moisture, water scarcity for irrigation, poor crop yields, and looming threats to food security. Livestock and forest ecosystems, too, suffer silently under prolonged dry spells. This declining monsoon trend is part of a broader shift.
According to scientists, this could be linked to interdecadal climate variability, driven in part by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation - a slow-moving climate pattern influencing monsoon behaviour. While much of India enters a 'positive epoch' of higher rainfall, the Northeast might be locked in a 'negative epoch' - a multi-decade cycle of reduced rain. Globally, the climate outlook is grim.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there's an 80 percent chance that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record, surpassing even 2024. Europe is already in the grip of unprecedented heatwaves. 'Heat domes' are intensifying and persisting longer than ever before symptoms of a warming planet disrupting established climate norms.
In this context, the Northeast's rain deficit is not just a regional issue; it's a warning siren. As rainfall declines and temperatures climb, the region's ecosystems, agriculture, and water systems will face increasing stress. The vulnerability of the region is compounded by its reliance on monsoon-dependent farming and inadequate infrastructure to store or distribute water. It's time policymakers stopped treating these deficits as one-off events. Five straight years of reduced monsoon rainfall demand a strategic response.