A file image of Russia-Ukraine War (Photo: IANS)
The conflict in Ukraine, after Russia’s invasion, has become overly protracted, entering as it has its fourth year, making it one of the longest of modern times. Ironically, Russian President Vladimir Putin had begun the campaign expecting to capture the Ukrainian capital Kiev within a matter of weeks, but the unexpected resistance he met from the Ukrainians had not only upended his objective of bringing about a regime change, but also drained Russian resources, particularly its manpower, to a significant degree, so much so that it had to take recourse to using mercenaries and North Korean troops to fight in the war.
Had it not been for the help he received from China, Putin may not have been able to sustain the invasion for so long. On the other side, if Ukraine has been able to resist the Russian onslaught despite being outgunned and outmanned, it had been only for the staunch backing of the US and European Union, a reality underlined by the recent meeting of UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz and Poland’s Donald Tusk, the leading figures of the so-called “coalition of the willing,” in Kiev, and their warning that “new and massive” sanctions would be imposed on Russia’s energy and banking sectors should Putin not agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire during which peace talks could be held.
Apparently, such a warning, coupled with US President Donald Trump’s change of attitude towards Moscow, has succeeded in making Putin more amenable towards talks required to bring this overly protracted conflict to an end. The Russian autocrat, however, has sought to show the world that he is not without allies as Western propaganda was making it seem, something his grandiose Victory Day Parade along with 27 world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping, in attendance, tried to establish.
Yet, the immediate fallout of the Kiev conclave had been an invitation by Moscow to Kiev to take part in “direct talks,” and Putin asserting that Russia was seeking “serious negotiations” aimed at “moving towards a lasting, strong peace.” With Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying it was a “positive sign” that Russia was considering ending the war in Ukraine, and confirming he himself would be flying to Turkey, the venue of the proposed peace talks, the prospect of these actually taking place has increased.
Even now there are potential roadblocks – for instance, Ukraine wants a 30-day ceasefire before the talks can start, while Russia wants the talks to start before a temporary cessation of hostilities. Moreover, there are too many issues of contention, such as the return of Ukrainian territory wrongfully annexed by Russia. Yet the international community, which has borne witness to the destabilisation of the world due to the conflict, is keeping its fingers crossed for it to end.