Turning the tide: A major blow to Bashar al-Assad’s rule

Guwahati, Dec. 10: Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali has agreed to hand over power to rebel forces following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Abu Mohammad al-Julani, leader of the main rebel group HTS, hailed the overthrow as “a victory for the entire Islamic nation.” On Tuesday, bombing raids by Israel, Turkey, and the US targeted the country as HTS rebels freed prisoners held by the regime.

The strikes coincide with warnings from the UN's chemical watchdog, urging Syrian authorities to ensure the safety of suspected chemical weapons stockpiles.

Earlier, on the quiet morning of December 8, celebrations erupted in Damascus as Syrian rebels announced the end of Assad's rule, just 11 days after capturing the capital in a swift offensive.

Timeline

• November 27: After the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect, Syrian opposition forces, led by HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) deployed an offensive attack from north-western Syria. According to the rebel groups, the attacks were a retaliation to the recent assaults by the Syrian government in the cities of Idlib, Ariha and Sarmada. The Syrian government responded by shelling while the Russian air force conducted air strikes.
• November 28: Rebels took over more territory and cleared out government forces from eastern Idlib.
• November 29: Rebel groups moved into Aleppo city and engaged with Syrian government forces towards the western end.
• November 30: Rebel groups advanced through Aleppo city and moved towards Hama.
• December 1: The Syrian government, in coordination with Russia, intensified the attacks and tried to slow down the rebel groups.
• December 2: Gruesome battles continue on the outskirts of Hama as the rebel groups advance to the city.
• December 3: The Syrian government stated they pushed back rebel groups. Opposition forces state they took over more Syrian troops.
• December 4: Rebel groups continued moving south and capturing more Hama towns.
• December 5: Rebel groups take full control of Hama.
• December 6: Rebel groups take control of Homs, Syria’s third-largest city.
• December 7: Rebel forces take over the city of Deraa and reach within a few kilometres of the capital city of Damascus. Towards the evening, they reach the city suburbs.
• December 8: Rebel forces capture the capital city of Damascus.

Roots of the Conflict

The Syrian Civil War, which started in 2011, emerged from a broader wave of uprisings known as the Arab Spring. It started as peaceful protests demanding democratic reforms and freedom under President Bashar al-Asaad’s regime. However, the violent crackdown by the Syrian government on demonstrators quickly escalated, and the situation turned into an armed conflict.

Opposition forces, including moderate groups and rebel forces, emerged to challenge Asaad’s Rule. The conflict turned into a complex war involving multiple factions:

• Syrian Government Forces
• Syrian Democratic Forces
• HTS and other allied rebel groups
• Turkish and Turkish-aligned Syrian rebel forces

The battle also saw the involvement of international powers like Russia, the United States, Iran and Turkey, each backing a different faction. Over the years, the conflict left more than half a million people dead and displaced millions. It also reduced Syria to ruins.

For many years, the Syrian opposition forces suffered from government turbulence, gradually losing ground to the Syrian regime. After 2020, with the conflict mostly ‘frozen’, HTS got to regroup and fight back the Syrian troops. The credit for this stronghold goes to Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the rebel leader of HTS, who powered up HTS to become a dominant force in Idlib. Under his leadership, HTS destroyed other militant factions and the Syrian government forces at present.

Fall of Bashar al-Asaad

An unthinkable feat just a week back, the fall of Bashar al-Asaad started when rebel groups began their determined campaign against the Syrian government. Assad came into power in 2000 after the death of his father, Hafez. He inherited a repressive political state that hardly tolerated oppression. The initial hopes of a less brutal regime were long diminished for the Syrians.

Assad tried his best violently to repress protests against his Rule in 2011, which ultimately led to the civil war. While earlier international forces backed his regime, this time they abandoned him. His troops became helpless and unwilling without this aid, ultimately backing out.

Future of Syria

While the takeover of Syria’s capital displayed the determination of rebel groups, it also exposed the fragmented nature of the opposition. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that IS would use the present situation to re-establish its capabilities in Syria. For the international community, the fall of Damascus highlights the urgent need for a diplomatic effort to end the war. The development is a stark reminder of the region's fragility and the human cost of prolonged warfare.