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At no point in the post-World War II phase has the threat of yet another global conflagration, involving all the superpowers as well as numerous smaller entities, been so great as it is now vis-à-vis the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. Ever since Israel launched a “surprise” attack on Iran on June 13, claiming that the latter was on the cusp of developing a nuclear bomb, killing several top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and other leaders, tensions have reached unprecedented heights.
Despite being caught off guard, Tehran quickly responded with equal effectiveness, raining down rockets and missiles on its adversary, and succeeding in repeatedly breaching Israel’s much-vaunted ‘iron dome,’ and for the first time taking the fighting into Israel’s home ground! Israel has also announced its intention of “eliminating” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and bringing about a regime change in that nation. Although, at this point in time, the conflict remains bilateral, the possibility of others jumping into the fray has become all too real. The most important of these is, of course, the US – President Trump has already announced that he “might or might not” join Israel in the assault on Tehran, and asserted that he would make his decision in two weeks. The timeline is obviously designed to put pressure on Iran, given that a US-backed attack would be far more devastating.
Any move on the part of the US to play a direct role in the conflict would be a red rag to other superpowers like Russia and China, which have already condemned the Israeli attack on Iran. It may be noted that Russia has long considered itself to be a potential power broker in the Middle East, and has robust economic and military relations with Iran. Moscow is unlikely to take kindly to direct US intervention in the conflict and might shed its carefully cultivated neutral image towards Israel and openly back Tehran.
While China might hesitate to burn its fingers by involving itself, European nations will find it difficult to abrogate their responsibilities, while lesser elements in the Middle East will be coerced into taking sides, thereby brewing up a dangerous cocktail. It may be noted that, in the Ukraine conflict, the West was careful to tread on its toes and not cross a line that might be considered provocative by Moscow, and the actual combat was between Ukraine and Moscow. But prolonged hostilities between Israel and Iran would be a different kettle of fish altogether and portend to have far graver consequences for the world order. With neither country backing down, European leaders are trying to de-escalate the conflict – but given that Israel of late has seemed least bothered with concerns other than its own, and Trump’s quixotic nature, they will have their work cut out!